The NFL bye week is actually a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough focus on. In the event you consider your novice sports bettor, so you spot the kind of betting line which includes you quickly heading to Google News plus your favorite sports stat site to find out if a player is injured, don’t forget to also notice if this team’s opponent is coming off a bye. For those advanced sports bettors battling with the bye week, I’ll cover some higher-level research and insights about the bye on this page. Prior to getting to this, I’ll address some general points for any individual not sure just what a bye week is, or which weeks teams have byes.
While you probably know, sbo is made up of each team playing 16 games. Back in 1990, the league changed to your 17 week season in order to profit more from television advertising. This left each team by using a single week off at some stage in the season termed as a bye week. The bye week was once random spanning within the entire season, but also in 2004 to create a more uniform schedule for the playoff race, the format was changed. How it operates now could be bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. As a sports bettor, you’ll must pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, because they have the main benefit of more time to relax, improve your health, practice and prepare.
While we won’t include this in your analysis, an additional area recreational bettors need to concentrate on is Thursday games. Starting week 10 in the NFL season you will find a single Thursday night game, and so on Thanksgiving there are 2 additional Thursday day games. Consequently on Thursday, teams will often be playing on short rest, which is often the case for both teams; so it will be not something to be concerned about. Where it gets a problem is the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and can obtain a similar advantage to usually the one they have got from the bye week. Make certain when creating bets on the NFL to pay for attention both to teams coming off of the bye, and to teams coming off a Thursday game.
Considering that this isn’t a post about statistical handicapping models, a topic which 95% of readers may find too advanced, I won’t go into it in much more detail than to produce a single statement after which support it. That statement: the more effective a team is, the more they gain benefit from the bye week. This is not a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis the best odds makers understand. To provide a compact clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye is actually a multiplier based upon power rankings. All teams benefit from the bye week, but how much they benefit is proportional to how good of the team they are.
In the event the above statement is in all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share some elementary stats regarding how well teams coming from the bye week have fared that will assist you understand the lines a little better.
Across the four latest seasons (2007-2010), in games where just one team is originating off of the bye, they coming off of the bye carries a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 up against the spread.
Now, if you’re considering betting teams coming off the bye for the reason that past 4 years they’ve covered 58.1% of times, read my article in the current betting market. A system including that might have worked in 2006; but, very likely than not, this trend won’t continue. It is because today NFL betting lines are significantly more efficient, along with the market will probably correct itself.
The typical ATS information is nice, however it doesn’t tell us much unless we break it down further. After accomplishing this, an even more interesting trend appears. Utilizing the same 110 game sample, teams coming away from the bye week which are favored have a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming off the bye have got a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is pretty small, but 15-1-2 against the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To share a remote stat out of a post I wrote a couple of dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (more than a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of times.
To return to and have more accurate 4 year numbers for all those favorites coming off the bye, there are 9 games missing from your 110 sample size I used. Simply because 9 times since 2007 there were games where both teams were coming from the bye. (32×4=128), I got the 110 sample size because 18 in the byes were not highly relevant to opening discussion.
The information here strongly supports that good teams benefit from the bye greater than the marketplace is providing them credit for. I have faith that that because only good teams are favored on the streets in the NFL. Using just road favorites is quirky, however, and some might consider it “data mining”, even though this trend is well founded when dating back much further than 2007. If we’re going to really consider this comprehensive, though, we should examine subsets of most favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s built in the spread.